It appears the the Scrum Alliance has quietly changed the requirements for becoming a Certified Scrum Trainer (CST).
Last fall, when I was planing the transition to becoming an independent Scrum coach, I checked out the requirements for becoming a CST and was quite disillusioned to discover that a 5 year apprenticeship was required. May 2007 + 5 years = 2012. Sigh.
This goes a long way to explain why only 54 trainers have emerged from the pool of 25'000 CSMs and probably has a very positive impact (from the trainer's point of view) on the cost of certified Scrum training.
But now, the career path has been shortened. I could not find a press release, but now, according the Scrum Alliance, a CSM can apply to become a Certified Scrum Practitioner (CSP) after 1 year — this is not new. What is new is that a CSP can apply to become a CST after another year.
I think this is a good thing. First of all, the CSP rating now has a purpose in life. Before, someone like me might do it for marketing reasons, but there was no career path associated with it. Now there is clear justification for the journeyman certification (and I'm motivated to do it!).
Second, this is a sign that the demand for Scrum training (and coaching and consulting) will continue to rise (probably accompanied by a price drop, but the market will be bigger). If the demand for Scrum training were to remain constant, there would be no need to increase the pool of trainers. Call it a sign that agile is moving into the mainstream.
So my prediction: a lot more trainers, many more Scrum masters, and a lot more companies doing Scrum. (I just hope most of them really do Scrum!)